Why Predicting Technology is so Hard

  What are we doing wrong?

Why are predictions of technological advancement so often wrong? Why can't we predict where breakthroughs are going to come from? Often, we'll predict something could never happen, only to be laughably wrong later.

"A rocket will never be able to leave the Earth's atmosphere." -The New York Times, January 13, 1920
"That the automobile has practically reached the limit of its development is suggested by the fact that during the past year no improvements of a radical nature have been introduced." -Scientific American, January 2, 1909.
"There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share." -Steve Ballmer 2007
"With over fifteen types of foreign cars already on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn't likely to carve out a big share of the market for itself." -Businessweek, August 2, 1968.

Well, even logical sound predictions can be completely turned on their head by a few phenomena described below.

The Public Doesn't Know What it Wants

"A lot of times, people don't know what they want until you show it to them." -Steve Jobs
Sometimes, a new or emergent technology will catch on unexpectedly because people hadn't realized they wanted it. Sound in movies, personal computing, and even the iPhone have been described as impractical and too niche to succeed on a large-scale market. In this case, possibility isn't a question- it's feasibility, practicality, and just the question that every investor asks- "Where's the market for this?"

Innovation comes from an unexpected place

One of the troubles with predicting specific breakthroughs is you never know what will be the focus of innovation and invention. The Industrial Revolution focused on manufacturing, the early 20th century focused on travel, the late 20th century focused on processing, and the 21st century has focused on communication. Of course, processing has improved this century, but nothing so major as the silicon chip versus vacuum tubes. Travel has improved, but nothing like the jump from carriages to automobiles and aircraft.

While communication is really the biggest improvement for the last decade, our focus may soon change. 3D printing is very close to bringing focus back to manufacturing, and trouble in the Middle East may soon cause an invention of necessity in the travel industry. Just remember- before you write something off as impossible, think of the quotes above.